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Monday, April 22, 2013

The (potential) cost of a secure border

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security tried to ruin cross-border trade last week.

Well, sort of.

The DHS has proposed a fee for passengers at U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexcio crossings in its 2014 budget. The Buffalo News reported that the DHS suggested studying the effects of such a fee. The suggestion was buried so deep in the budget that it wasn't until Rep. Bryan Higgins (D-Buffalo) made a fuss about it last week that anyone noticed.

The original story does not give any figures for the fee, nor does the story from the Montreal Gazette, from which I found out about the plan.

The effects on the Buffalo region would be obvious, hence why Sen. Charles Schumer was on his political game in The Buffalo News, decrying such a fee and saying, "We don't need a study that tells us that."

My girlfriend is from the Buffalo region, and she said that while the City of Buffalo wouldn't necessarily be crushed by a border fee, which it seems obvious would lead to a reduction in cross-border traffic and cross-border trade, Niagara Falls would be devastated.

Schumer would be crazy not to take an immediate interest in the well-being of the state's second-largest city and metro area, so for him to defend that region makes sense. But what Schumer also needs to take an interest in is the Montreal-New York City corridor, the northern most area of which would, like Niagara Falls, be devastated by a fee like this.

Here, the Plattsburgh economy depends on Canadian traffic, specifically Quebec traffic (don't let some locals' excuses -- "They can't drive." "They don't speak English." -- throw you off the trail). Even highway signs are in French to help promote Quebec travel. Visit Champlain Centre (see, even we use a Canadian spelling for our mall) on a Saturday and take away the cars from Quebec and you'll be able to park next to the doors outside every retailer. Do the same at local hotels and chains like Best Western, Holiday Inn and Comfort Inn will disappear.

Quebecers come to the United States to shop because taxes are lower, some prices are lower, the exchange rate has been better, it's easier to maneuver Plattsburgh than the island of Montreal and there are things here that Canadians can't get at home. Don't believe me? I talked to Canadians two years ago on Saint-Jean-Baptiste Day, and that's what they said.

Now, would a border fee completely shut off the United States from Canada? Of course not. Quebecers would still come to New York. But if a fee canceled out a favorable exchange rate and the tax breaks, they'd be crazy to keep coming over. Couple that with the rising price of gas (I wouldn't ever pay by the liter for gas in Canada. Based on my calculations, gas is almost $5 a gallon in Montreal. GasBuddy.com says I'm pretty darn close too.) and Quebecers have more reasons to stay home than come to New York. When that happens, the already broken economy will spiral into oblivion.

With that, the biggest effect I see on the Plattsburgh economy is an increase to the brain drain, which would only further devastate the economy (If you want to learn more about the brain drain, talk to local economist Colin Read. He'll scare you with just the facts into wanting to fix the economy).

In the interest of fairness, yes, a fee would help offset furloughs and other cuts caused by the sequester by providing the DHS with more money to staff the border and make it safer -- though the U.S.-Canadian border is the longest border in the world not controlled by a military presence. But I'd like to see how much of that fee generated up north would actually be used up north. It's obvious that the U.S.-Mexican border is the DHS' primary concern.

In the end, the proposal is for only a study, not the actual fee. But before the U.S. government spends money on a study it doesn't need to conduct in the first place, this item needs to be struck from the DHS budget.

If it isn't, and the study concludes a fee would be a feasible option, I suggest Plattsburgh-area residents get out while they still can.

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